Theoretical and Natural Science

- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences


Theoretical and Natural Science

Vol. 38, 06 June 2024


Open Access | Article

Insurance company underwriting model against extreme weather

Jiheng Xu * 1
1 IoT Academy(Internet of Things Academy),Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Theoretical and Natural Science, Vol. 38, 1-11
Published 06 June 2024. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by EWA Publishing
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Citation Jiheng Xu. Insurance company underwriting model against extreme weather. TNS (2024) Vol. 38: 1-11. DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240522.

Abstract

This paper provides a corresponding coping strategy for developing the insurance industry under extreme weather by establishing an insurance company underwriting model. An insurance model (ICU model) for assessing catastrophe risk is proposed based on the results of some international databases and disaster resilience studies. The ICP coefficient is obtained by multiplying the regional vulnerability index with the regional risk index, where our innovatively proposed ARIMA-LSTM coupling algorithm predicts the risk index. The inverse proportionality function of the ICU coefficient is constructed based on the fact that the risk of insurance companies is positively correlated with the regional risk (ICP coefficient) and negatively correlated with the regional purchasing power (CBP coefficient). The CBP coefficients were computed by K-means clustering, and the derived ICP coefficients were used to derive the ICU coefficients for each region. Finally, the coefficients were categorized into three intervals to give the insurance company’s coverage model.

Keywords

ARIMA-LSTM coupling algorithm, K-means clustering, Insurance Company Underwriting Model, Economic vulnerability, Social vulnerability

References

1. Botzen, W., Deschênes, O., & Sanders, M. (2019). The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A review of Models and Empirical studies. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13(2), 167–188. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez004

2. https://www.vcg.com/creative-image/jiduantianqi/

3. Kousky, C. (2019). The role of natural disaster insurance in recovery and risk reduction. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 11(1), 399–418. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100518-094028

4. https://ourworldindata.org/search?q=Extreme-weather

5. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2022&start=2022&type=shaded&view=map&year=1973

6. https://www.kylc.com/stats/global/yearly_overview/g_gdp_per_capita.html

7. Liu, L. Mathematical Modeling and Improvement of Risk Analysis for Natural Disaster Insurance [C]// Proceedings of the First Annual Conference of the Risk Analysis Professional Committee, China Disaster Prevention Association. 2004. doi ConferenceArticle/ 5aa45d70c095 d72220c6afa8.

8. Yuan Qinglu, He Weiming, Li Nan, Sun Ruiting. Deviation Analysis on Willingness and Behavior of Residents’ Earthquake Insurance Purchasing−Based on Logit Model[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2022,17(4): 775-783.doi:10.11899/zzfy20220

Data Availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Physics and Computational Simulation
ISBN (Print)
978-1-83558-461-3
ISBN (Online)
978-1-83558-462-0
Published Date
06 June 2024
Series
Theoretical and Natural Science
ISSN (Print)
2753-8818
ISSN (Online)
2753-8826
DOI
10.54254/2753-8818/38/20240522
Copyright
06 June 2024
Open Access
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Copyright © 2023 EWA Publishing. Unless Otherwise Stated