Theoretical and Natural Science
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Vol. 38, 06 June 2024
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
This paper provides a corresponding coping strategy for developing the insurance industry under extreme weather by establishing an insurance company underwriting model. An insurance model (ICU model) for assessing catastrophe risk is proposed based on the results of some international databases and disaster resilience studies. The ICP coefficient is obtained by multiplying the regional vulnerability index with the regional risk index, where our innovatively proposed ARIMA-LSTM coupling algorithm predicts the risk index. The inverse proportionality function of the ICU coefficient is constructed based on the fact that the risk of insurance companies is positively correlated with the regional risk (ICP coefficient) and negatively correlated with the regional purchasing power (CBP coefficient). The CBP coefficients were computed by K-means clustering, and the derived ICP coefficients were used to derive the ICU coefficients for each region. Finally, the coefficients were categorized into three intervals to give the insurance company’s coverage model.
ARIMA-LSTM coupling algorithm, K-means clustering, Insurance Company Underwriting Model, Economic vulnerability, Social vulnerability
1. Botzen, W., Deschênes, O., & Sanders, M. (2019). The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A review of Models and Empirical studies. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13(2), 167–188. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez004
2. https://www.vcg.com/creative-image/jiduantianqi/
3. Kousky, C. (2019). The role of natural disaster insurance in recovery and risk reduction. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 11(1), 399–418. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100518-094028
4. https://ourworldindata.org/search?q=Extreme-weather
5. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2022&start=2022&type=shaded&view=map&year=1973
6. https://www.kylc.com/stats/global/yearly_overview/g_gdp_per_capita.html
7. Liu, L. Mathematical Modeling and Improvement of Risk Analysis for Natural Disaster Insurance [C]// Proceedings of the First Annual Conference of the Risk Analysis Professional Committee, China Disaster Prevention Association. 2004. doi ConferenceArticle/ 5aa45d70c095 d72220c6afa8.
8. Yuan Qinglu, He Weiming, Li Nan, Sun Ruiting. Deviation Analysis on Willingness and Behavior of Residents’ Earthquake Insurance Purchasing−Based on Logit Model[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2022,17(4): 775-783.doi:10.11899/zzfy20220
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open Access Instruction).