Theoretical and Natural Science
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Theoretical and Natural Science
Vol. 6, 03 August 2023
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Research on British epidemic forecast——Based on SIR model
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has swept the world and continues to threaten human society. Forecasting the future trend of the epidemics is very important for the prevention of COVID-19. The SIR model is an important mathematical model to forecast future epidemic in epidemiology. In a press conference from London on July 5th, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the British government will end nearly all of the coronavirus restrictions starting July 19. This paper aims to use the SIR model to predict epidemics after deregulation of social distance. The results show that as of July 8, 2021, the number of people infected will continue to increase after deregulation, reaching approximately 30000 per day. The British government should reconsider completely liberalizing epidemic control.
Keywords
SIR, Covid-19, microbiological transmission, UK, government control
References
1. Masaaki Ishikawa, “Optimal Strategies for Vaccination using the Stochastic SIRV Model”, Transactions of the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers，Vol. 25, No. 12, pp. 343–348, 2012
2. Ross, Ronald (1 February 1916). "An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry.—Part I". Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character. 92 (638): 204–230. Bibcode:1916RSPSA..92..204R. doi:10.1098/rspa.1916.0007
3. “England May Be Lifting Nearly All Of Its Coronavirus Restrictions By July 19” https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/05/1013215599/england-may-be-lifting-nearly-all-of-its-coronavirus-restrictions-by-july-19
4. The British government official website. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
5. Harko, Tiberiu; Lobo, Francisco S. N.; Mak, M. K. (2014). "Exact analytical solutions of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model and of the SIR model with equal death and birth rates". Applied Mathematics and Computation. 236: 184–194.
6. B. D. Ripley, “The R project in statistical computing,” MSOR connect., 1(1), 23–25, 2001
Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the International Conference on Modern Medicine and Global Health (ICMMGH 2023)
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-915371-65-2
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-915371-66-9
- Published Date
- 03 August 2023
- Series
- Theoretical and Natural Science
- ISSN (Print)
- 2753-8818
- ISSN (Online)
- 2753-8826
- DOI
- 10.54254/2753-8818/6/20230135
- Copyright
- 03 August 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited