Theoretical and Natural Science

- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences

Theoretical and Natural Science

Vol. 24, 20 December 2023

Open Access | Article

Modeling COVID-19 spreading — evidence from Canada

Dongchi Jiang * 1
1 Engineering College, University of Sydney, Sydney NSW 2007, Australia

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Theoretical and Natural Science, Vol. 24, 45-51
Published 20 December 2023. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by EWA Publishing
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Citation Dongchi Jiang. Modeling COVID-19 spreading — evidence from Canada. TNS (2023) Vol. 24: 45-51. DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/24/20231093.


This study delves into the comprehensive examination of the COVID-19 pandemic that has been affecting the global community since late 2019. The repercussions have been ameliorated to some extent with the advent of effective vaccination campaigns, albeit the impact varies across regions and outbreaks. Beginning with an introduction to the fundamental epidemiological SIR (Susceptibility, Infection, Recovery) model, the research extrapolates it to reflect the complex dynamics of the COVID-19 scenario, employing data from Ontario, Canada, to ground the analysis in real-world observations. Several parameters and initial conditions inform the development of differential equations and ensuing line graphs within the scope of the extended VSEAIR (Vaccinated, Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic Infected, Symptomatic Infected, and Recovered) model. The study scrutinizes the interplay of two pivotal aspects: the effectiveness of vaccination and the influence of governmental interventions. It offers a rigorous review of the trajectory of COVID-19 in Ontario, shedding light on potential strategies to optimize the response to the pandemic and contributing to evidence-based policymaking.


COVID-19, SIR model, vaccination, VSEAIR model


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Data Availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science
ISBN (Print)
ISBN (Online)
Published Date
20 December 2023
Theoretical and Natural Science
ISSN (Print)
ISSN (Online)
20 December 2023
Open Access
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Copyright © 2023 EWA Publishing. Unless Otherwise Stated