Theoretical and Natural Science

- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences


Theoretical and Natural Science

Vol. 39, 21 June 2024


Open Access | Article

Predicting song popularity in the digital age through Spotify’s data

Kejun Li * 1
1 University of Toronto

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Theoretical and Natural Science, Vol. 39, 68-75
Published 21 June 2024. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by EWA Publishing
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Citation Kejun Li. Predicting song popularity in the digital age through Spotify’s data. TNS (2024) Vol. 39: 68-75. DOI: 10.54254/2753-8818/39/20240600.

Abstract

This study delves into predicting song popularity on Spotify by analyzing a dataset of song features from 1986 to 2022. Using linear regression, this paper examines the influence of audio characteristics such as energy, danceability, speechiness, duration, and mode, alongside the year of release. The findings indicate that danceability, more recent release years, and longer track duration are positively associated with higher popularity levels. Conversely, songs in minor keys are more favored than those in major keys. These results highlight the significance of both intrinsic musical qualities and evolving listener preferences over time. The model's robustness is ensured through comprehensive diagnostic tests that validate the assumptions of linearity, normality, and homoscedasticity, confirming the predictive reliability of the identified factors. This research not only enhances the understanding of the dynamics driving music popularity but also provides valuable insights for artists and producers aiming to optimize their music for digital platforms. By focusing on the critical elements that resonate with contemporary audiences, stakeholders can better strategize their music releases to maximize listener engagement and success on streaming platforms.

Keywords

Song popularity, audio features, linear regression

References

1. Al-Beitawi Z, Salehan M and Zhang S 2020 What Makes a Song Trend? Cluster Analysis of Musical Attributes for Spotify Top Trending Songs. Journal of Marketing Development and Competitiveness, 14(3), 79-91.

2. Araujo C V S, Cristo M A P and Giusti R 2019 Predicting Music Popularity Using Music Charts. 2019 18th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA), 859-864.

3. Ge Y, Wu J and Sun Y 2020 Popularity prediction of music based on factor extraction and model blending. 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME), 1062-1065.

4. Gulmatico J S, et al. 2022 SpotiPred: A Machine Learning Approach Prediction of Spotify Music Popularity by Audio Features. 2022 Second International Conference on Power, Control and Computing Technologies (ICPC2T), 1-5.

5. Guo B 2021 A Model for Predicting Pop Music Popularity and Its Different Characteristics Based on Multiple Linear Regression. Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science, 4(5), 58-70.

6. Kaye D B V 2022 Please Duet This: Collaborative Music Making in Lockdown on TikTok. Networking Knowledge: Journal of the MeCCSA Postgraduate Network, 15(1).

7. Lee J and Lee J S 2018 Music popularity: Metrics, characteristics, and audio-based prediction. IEEE Transactions on Multimedia, 20(11), 3173-3182.

8. Monechi B, et al. 2017 Significance and popularity in music production. IEEE Transactions on Multimedia.

9. Parkhomenko I and Berezovska K 2022 Popularity Strategies of a Modern Music Artist. Socio-Cultural Management Journal, 5(2), 126-141.

10. Ren J and Kauffman R J 2017 Understanding music track popularity in a social network. 25th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), 374-388.

11. Saragih H S 2023 Predicting song popularity based on spotify’s audio features: insights from the Indonesian streaming users. Journal of Management Analytics.

12. Sciandra M and Spera I C 2022 A model-based approach to Spotify data analysis: a Beta GLMM. Journal of Applied Statistics, 49(1), 214–229.

13. Yee Y K and Raheem M 2022 Predicting Music Popularity Using Spotify and YouTube Features. Indian Journal of Science and Technology 15(36): 1786-1799.

Data Availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Authors who publish this series agree to the following terms:

1. Authors retain copyright and grant the series right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this series.

2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the series's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this series.

3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open Access Instruction).

Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Physics and Computational Simulation
ISBN (Print)
978-1-83558-463-7
ISBN (Online)
978-1-83558-464-4
Published Date
21 June 2024
Series
Theoretical and Natural Science
ISSN (Print)
2753-8818
ISSN (Online)
2753-8826
DOI
10.54254/2753-8818/39/20240600
Copyright
21 June 2024
Open Access
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Copyright © 2023 EWA Publishing. Unless Otherwise Stated