Theoretical and Natural Science
- The Open Access Proceedings Series for Conferences
Theoretical and Natural Science
Vol. 26, 20 December 2023
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Forecast the house price index for California using different forecasting methods
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Abstract
Forecasting house price index is a useful and classic problem in real estate and investment fields. Predicting house price index in a region not only helps investors make sensible decisions but also aids the government in promulgating policy. This paper will use some simple forecasting models (mean model, naïve model, drift model, linear model and ARIMA model) in forecast test part and by seeing the average value of their residuals and checking whether the distribution of the residuals approximates the normal distribution, select the one with the highest accuracy among them for the final prediction. Multiple linear regression is also used to find if there is relationship between predicted data and possible influencing factors (such as income, unemployment rate and population) and then use the factors that have strong correlation with predicted data to optimize our forecasts and provide a more accurate prediction for the house price index in California in the next few years.
Keywords
House price index, ARIMA model, multiple linear regression
References
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Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
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- Volume Title
- Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Computing Innovation and Applied Physics
- ISBN (Print)
- 978-1-83558-235-0
- ISBN (Online)
- 978-1-83558-236-7
- Published Date
- 20 December 2023
- Series
- Theoretical and Natural Science
- ISSN (Print)
- 2753-8818
- ISSN (Online)
- 2753-8826
- DOI
- 10.54254/2753-8818/26/20241026
- Copyright
- 20 December 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited